Katie Hobbs’ Arizona Promise: More Government Jobs

During her 2025 State of the State Address, among her many exaggerations, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs made the dubious claim that “since [she] became governor, we’ve created[1] nearly 200,000 jobs.” This claim was suspect at the time, and the recent release of Arizona’s latest monthly employment data confirms just how misleading it really was. At the time of Hobbs’ address, available data showed that Arizona had added around 128,000 jobs total since she took office, 36 percent lower than the 200,000 Hobbs took credit for. In fact, you’d have to count all the way back to March 2022 (nine months before Hobbs took office) to capture 200,000 new jobs in Arizona.

When Hobbs addressed the Legislature, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) hadn’t yet released the December jobs data, so it was technically possible—though highly unlikely—that the state added nearly a year’s worth of jobs in a single month and Hobbs’ team had an early peek. The December data proved this was not the case, when Arizona added 3,400 jobs, not the more than 20 times that, which Hobbs needed for her claim to be true. Alarmingly, the state unemployment rate rose in December for the fourth straight month and fifth out of the last six months. While the national rate was stable over that same period, Arizona’s unemployment rate rose half a percentage point and Arizona, despite being slightly lower than the national average, is now in the bottom half of states.

Importantly, with the December jobs report, two full years of employment data are now available, marking the halfway point of Governor Hobbs’ term. The data raise significant red flags and confirm several alarming trends about Arizona’s employment market that we have written about in the past.

First, what does the data say about 2024? Last year, total nonfarm employment grew by just 1.7 percent. This annual growth rate is the second worst for the state since 2011, behind only 2020 in the peak of the COVID pandemic. Private sector growth was even lower and marked the second worst since 2010 (again, behind only 2020). Health care and social assistance jobs accounted for around 52 percent of new private sector jobs, despite making up only 16 percent of Arizona’s private sector.

Meanwhile, other key industries struggled. The state lost almost 3,000 construction jobs last year, one of only 10 states to do so, and ranked 44th overall. In her State of the State, Governor Hobbs proudly proclaimed that Arizona is “the top market in the nation for manufacturing expansion.” Last year the state lost 1,200 manufacturing jobs and was tied for 30th among all the states. In fact, since Hobbs took office, manufacturing is the second worst performing major industry, with 2,200 jobs lost.

One key theme throughout Hobbs’ first two years was the growth of government jobs, which rightly earned her the nickname “Katie Government Jobbs.” More government growth in 2024 meant Hobbs oversaw the largest two-year government jobs boom since 2008.

Perhaps more alarming is that 2024 saw government jobs grow faster than the private sector, continuing a trend set in Hobbs’ first year.

This marks back-to-back years of government outperforming the private sector for the first time since 2007-2009 and only the third occurrence in the last 25 years. Whereas the previous two instances occurred in the midst of national recessions, under Katie Hobbs government jobs exploded to their highest level ever while the national economy was stable. Had private sector jobs grown at the same pace as government jobs under Katie Hobbs, Arizona would have 32,000 more private sector jobs and a nearly one-point lower unemployment rate.

Katie Hobbs focused her State of the State on “the Arizona Promise,” while misleading about her jobs record. If the Arizona Promise means that “everyday people can find opportunity, security and freedom,” and “through hard work and perseverance, you can build a good life for yourself and your family,” as Hobbs said, then her policies must ensure that all Arizonans prosper, not just those who work for government. That prosperity will only come by embracing free enterprise and unleashing the potential of all Arizonans to participate in the economy and take control of their own livelihood as consumers and even business owners themselves.


[1] Hobbs has used this peculiar phrasing in the past, and it’s still unclear what she means by we or what role she thinks she had in the creation of jobs in the state, since government (generally) can’t create jobs.